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Article Title :

Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus nCov-19 from Wuhan to Rest of the World

4 (2020)



Tourist inflow , Wuhan , China , COVID-19 , Coronavirus

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The study tries to understand the aftermath infection breakout scenario pattern of Novel Coronavirus (nCov-19) from a Chinese city which is twofold in nature as per its purpose to understand its breakout and to discuss its sequential spreading over the globe. The study considers the variables responsible for such outbreak all over the globe with variation in its spreading rate or growth pattern. Social factors, behavioral factors and the frequencies of movement from Wuhan deals are carefully in the study. In the first part, study concentrated on the pattern of distribution over Wuhan and its spreading through international passenger’s movement. Further, the variables adopted are GDP per Capita, Air Flight Passenger before Two weeks of Spring Festival, Share of Urban Population, Old Age Population and International Tourist inflow. Control measures taken by the Chinese Government has minimized the transmission of nCovid-19 within the urban centers and provinces. The study also found that Air Flight Passenger before Two weeks of Spring Festival in’000 (2018 dataset), Share of Urban Population and International Tourist inflow are the three main significant variable to explain the outbreak scenario of nCovid-19.

Chinese Government has suspended every travel movement by lockdown the Wuhan city on 23 January 2020.

This pandemic situation does not make much effect on the countries African continent except two to three countries.

Due to Spring Festival Holiday about 5 million populations out of nearly 11 million have left out just before the lockdown announced on 23 January 2020 from Wuhan.

Flight passenger, urban population and tourist inflow are the three significant variables of H2H transmission of nCov-19.

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